Live · As of May 8, 2026
The Buffett Indicator
US Total Stock Market Cap divided by US GDP. Warren Buffett called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”
Current value
253%
Globalization-adjusted: 125%
Strongly Overvalued
US Market Cap
$80.6 T
US GDP (annualized)
$31.9 T
Ratio
253.1%
Historical Chart
Denominator
Classic Buffett Indicator — US market cap ÷ US GDP. Biased upward over time because US firms earn ~40% of revenue overseas.
S&P 500 foreign-revenue share
20.0% (1970)→41.0% (2026)
Interpolated between annual S&P Global / FactSet anchors
Buffett Indicator (GDP)
What it means
When the indicator climbs well above 100%, the stock market is large relative to the underlying economy — historically a sign of stretched valuations. When it falls below the long-term trend, equities have tended to deliver stronger forward returns.
Zones
- Strongly Undervalued< 75%
- Undervalued75 – 90%
- Fair Value90 – 115%
- Overvalued115 – 135%
- Strongly Overvalued> 135%